Black swans are unpredictable events that are beyond what is normally expected and have potentially severe consequences. By definition, they are rare. Yet the past two years have seen two such events impact Nebraska agriculture: a blizzard, late spring rains, and floods in 2019 and COVID-19 in 2020. Is another black swan in the offing for 2021? The odds would suggest not, but it seems like the odds have changed in recent years. Best to be prepared.