USDA Outlook

Commodity markets were shocked last week by the news coming from Ukraine, but they also had to absorb USDA production, consumption, and export projections released last week for marketing year 2022-23. The projections mark the first of several projections the agency will offer for the marketing year.

USDA projects planted corn acres in 2022 will be 92 million, down from the 93.4 million acres planted last year. Average yield is projected at 181 bushels per acre. Production is forecast modestly higher, ethanol and other usage higher, exports lower, and ending stocks up 3 percent. The season average price is projected to be $5.00/bu. down from $5.45 this year.

Soybean acres were pegged at 88 million, a bit higher than last year’s 87.2 milllion acres. Yield is projected at 51.5 million bushels with overall production forecast to be up 1 percent. Exports and soybean crush are expected to be higher. The average price for the 2022-23 marketing year is forecast at $12.75 per bushel verses $13.00 this year.

Wheat acres are projected at 48 million acres, the highest since 2016, yield is projected at 49.1 bushels, up 5 bushels from last year and exports are projected higher.

The USDA projections assume normal weather conditions for the U.S. growing season and do not account for the impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Obviously, the numbers are projections and changes will occur over the next two years to U.S. production and consumption and global supply and demand to affect the numbers. However, the projections offer guideposts for underlying supply and demand conditions in the commodity markets over the next two years.