2024 Net Farm Income Slumps

The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) reported net farm income in Nebraska for 2024 was $5.94 billion, a decline of $3.4 billion from 2023’s record-setting $9.3 billion (Figure 2). Though down, last year’s income was still the sixth-highest on record in nominal terms. Last year’s drop, -36%, continues a pattern since 2010 of sizable swings from year-to-year (Figure 3). The average change in net farm income since then in absolute terms was 39%. Farm income is an example of the escalating volatility in agriculture, intensifying the complications producers face in managing their operations. Nationally, net farm income declined 20% last year.

FIGURE 2. Nebraska Net Farm Income

FIGURE 3. Annual Percentage Changes in Nebraska Net Farm Income

The ERS’s September forecast predicted U.S. net farm income would surge 41% this year. Positive returns for livestock producers and the one-time emergency government assistance distributed earlier this year fuel the surge. Forecasts by economists at the Universities of Nebraska and Missouri last spring projected Nebraska net farm income could exceed $9 billion like it did in 2023. Again, livestock returns and government assistance figured heavily in the forecast. Updated estimates should be forthcoming this fall. Given deteriorating conditions in the farm economy, it’s hard to imagine updated projections will remain that high. Then again, no one imagined it would exceed $9 billion two years ago either.