Difficult Decisions

Drought, wildfires, and uncertain markets are making it difficult for Nebraska ranchers to make decisions on herd size. According to the USDA National Drought Mitigation Center, 86% of Nebraska cattle are in areas suffering from drought. Presently drought covers 83% of the state, a modest improvement compared to three months ago when 95% of the state was under drought, but much worse compared to a year ago. Last year at this time, 50% of the state was under drought. And this year the area covered by severe, extreme, or exceptional drought conditions (D2-D4) is significantly larger, 45% compared to 3% last year. The continued arid conditions are not helping those ranchers attempting to recover from wildfires. Research has shown that recovery of burned pastures is highly precipitation dependent. Without adequate moisture, it can be a year or longer before pastures can be grazed again.

Figure 1. Nebraska Drought Monitor Map, August 27, 2026

Figure 2. Cattle Areas in Drought

Nebraska pasture conditions show the effects of drought. Figure 3 shows combined weekly “poor” and “very poor” average pasture ratings from 2010-2024 along with ratings for 2025 and 2026. Poor and very poor pasture conditions, on average, range between 14-29% during the growing season. This year the share has hovered around 70% with the latest reading showing 63% of pastures are in either poor or very poor condition. The drought is also affecting Nebraska’s hay production. An estimated 88% of Nebraska’s hay production is in areas with drought. The USDA projects hay production will be off 5%, and alfalfa production will be down 11% this year. It also reported Nebraska hay stocks on May 1 were off 11% compared to last year, from 1.75 million tons to 1.55 million tons.  

Figure 3. Nebraska Pasture Conditions (Percent Poor/Very Poor)

Higher cattle prices would typically incent ranchers to retain heifers for breeding and herd expansion. Nationally, signs suggest a tentative herd expansion could be underway. In Nebraska, though, ranchers are hard pressed to expand herds given current conditions. In fact, anecdotal reports say Nebraska ranchers are culling cows due to the lack of pasture and feed stocks. And the opportunity costs for forgoing sales of heifers now for a potential return in the future are high. Nebraska’s beef cow inventory on January 1 was at a multi-decade low. Next year’s inventory won’t likely show any change.