Exports Turn Positive to Begin 2026

The value of U.S. agricultural exports through the first three months of 2026 rose 6% compared to the same period in 2025, totaling $46.6 billion. And the increases were seen across almost all commodities. Figure 4 shows the percentage changes for key Nebraska exports in the first quarter along with annual percentage changes for the four years prior. Only red meats (beef, pork, and lamb) saw a decline in the export value in the first quarter compared to last year, down 2%. All other commodities saw gains led by soybeans, up 25%, followed by wheat and animal feed and oil meal, up 7%.

The increase in soybean exports is particularly noteworthy given the marked declines seen in the past three years. Increased shipments to China and Egypt helped pace the surge. Corn exports are a bit higher this year on larger purchases by Mexico and to some extent Japan. The increase in the value of red meat exported was largely due to growing pork exports. According to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), pork exports through the first quarter were 3% above last year’s pace, led by higher exports to Mexico and Central America. The value of beef exports was down, mostly due to the lack of purchases by China. According to the USMEF, if China were excluded from the numbers, U.S. beef exports would have increased 9% in terms of value.

Figure 4. Percent Changes in the Value of U.S. Ag Exports, 2022-2025 & 2026 YTD

The growth in exports thus far this year is the largest seen since 2022. Greater exports and fewer imports in the first quarter led to a narrowing of the trade deficit in agricultural goods to $4.7 billion compared to $15 billion last year. And it seems the export growth may continue. Projections made in February by USDA called for slightly higher exports through the end of September. Corn exports were forecast higher, but beef and soybeans were expected to be lower.

However, the trade situation has changed since these projections were made. President Trump’s recent trip and discussions with President Xi of China could spur additional buying by that country. Already China has reinstated the registrations for U.S. beef processing facilities, opening the door for renewed U.S. beef shipments. And China, according to the White House, has agreed to purchases of other U.S. agricultural products as well, although China has been largely silent regarding any deal. Growing exports is good news for producers. With abundant supplies at hand, growing and maintaining demand is important.  

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