Trade With China - The Not So Good News

The latest deal with China is the good news for agricultural trade. The bad news—the cost to agriculture last year of Chinese retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods in response to U.S. tariffs. An analysis by the North Dakota State University Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies estimated U.S. agricultural shipments to China between March 2025 and February 2026 were almost $15 billion less than they would have been in the absence of the tariffs. The estimate, though, does not account for lost Chinese sales which might have been redirected to other countries. Thus, the net loss in total agricultural exports would have been less.

Figure 2 provides a breakdown by state of the estimated trade losses. Nebraska was estimated to have lost $710 million, while California, Illinois, and Iowa suffered losses of around $1.2 billion each. Soybeans accounted for roughly half of the losses at $6.8 billion, and beef and cotton each contributed about $1.3 billion (Figure 3). Nebraska avoided worse losses because soybeans are a lesser share of the crop production mix relative to corn compared to Illinois and Iowa. Still the estimated losses are significant. The recently announced trade deal could help mitigate the losses. If the deal comes to fruition, U.S. exports to China could return to levels seen earlier in the decade.

Figure 2. State-Level Effects of Change in U.S. Agricultural Shipments to China, 2025

Figure 3. Shortfall in U.S. Shipments to China by Commodity

‍

‍