USDA Production Estimates Released

After a month’s absence because of the government shutdown, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service released its latest crop production forecasts on Friday. The forecast pegs Nebraska’s corn crop at 1.97 billion bushels, roughly the same as the forecast in September, and  record-setting if realized. The average yield is estimated at 191 bushels, up 3 bushels per acre from last year. Nebraska’s soybean production is projected to 307.2 million bushels, up from the September forecast of 292.8 million bushels. The average soybean yield estimate was raised to 64 bushels per acre, up nearly 7 bushels from last year and a potential record. U.S. corn production is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, up 12% from 2024. Yields are expected to average 186 bushels per acre, up 6.7 bushels from last year. Soybean production is forecast at 4.25 billion bushels, down 3%. Yields are expected to average a record high of 53.0 bushels per acre, up 2.3 bushels.

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FIGURE 1. Nebraska Corn & Soybean Production

Friday also saw the release of the USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Corn exports during the crop year are projected higher, but supply is expected to rise more than use leading to an increase in ending stocks. The agency also increased the expected season-average corn price by 10 cents to $4.00 per bushel. The USDA did not increase soybean exports even though the U.S. agreed to a trade deal with China. Instead, it expects any higher shipments to China to be offset by reductions in exports to other markets. Ending soybean stocks are forecast to fall slightly and the season-average soybean price increased 50 cents to $10.50 per bushel.