Agriculture in 5-10 Years

“Agriculture in the 5-10 Years” was the topic of a recent panel discussion as part of an agricultural economics class at the University of Nebraska. Kelly Brunkhorst, Executive Director of the Nebraska Corn Board, Matthew Melchor, Director of State Government Affairs with the Nebraska Cattlemen, and this author made up the panel. The invitation to join the class came from professors Fabio Mattos and Kate Brooks with the Department of Agricultural Economics who teach and organize the class. The hope was that the discussion could highlight trends, changes, and issues in agriculture students could expect, or at least need to be aware of, as they plan and start their professional careers.

Panel members detailed several factors which will shape agriculture in the next 5-10 years and what it might look like. The highlights included:  

1. Data collection and usage in production, marketing, and financial decision-making will become increasingly prevalent and important to the successful management of farm and livestock operations. Increased reliance on technology with the goal of greater efficiency, sustainability, and productivity will necessitate data-driven decision-making.
2. Labor scarcity will continue to plague agriculture, particularly in the livestock and processing sectors. But it will be a growing issue for the crop sector too. Greater automation and the adoption of labor-saving technologies will result.
3. Further farm and ranch consolidation will mean fewer and larger farm and ranch operations. Managing larger scale operations will be increasingly complex. Producers will employ people inside and outside their operations to help guide, manage, and assist with production, marketing, and finance decisions.
4. More partnerships and other cooperative ventures between larger farm and ranch operations with suppliers/processors/end users will occur. The arrangements will involve the sharing of information and data to provide traceability and satisfy consumer expectations. Walmart’s arrangements with feedlots and ranchers are an example. Smaller farm and ranch operations will continue to see niche marketing opportunities like direct-to-consumer sales.
5. Previous drivers of growth in agriculture will slow, meaning producers must find alternative markets. The Costco and Lincoln Premium Poultry project provides an example of ways producers can diversify, generate alternative revenue streams, and maintain viability for the next generation.
6. Global competition, the eventual end of the war between Ukraine and Russia, the breakdown of international institutions, and the nationalistic, protective turn by countries mean agricultural exports will stall as a growth engine. The U.S. will be seen increasingly seen as an unreliable trading partner and countries will turn to other suppliers to fill their needs. The U.S. will still export agricultural products, but trade won’t have the prevalence it does today.
7. The growth of the use of ethanol in fuels will stagnate as gasoline consumption in the U.S. declines. Opportunities for ethanol and byproducts for use in bio-based and other products have promise, but there is uncertainty given the role federal policies will play.
8. The changing climate, conservation efforts, and the environmental agenda will provide opportunities for producers to capture alternative revenue streams from adopting eco-friendly practices. At the same time, agriculture will be increasingly scrutinized and regulated for its impact on the environment.

Panel members are optimistic about agriculture’s future. The innovation and resilience of persons in agriculture, repeatedly demonstrated in the past, coupled with the fact that young people wanting to have a career in agriculture will be better prepared, more adept with technology, and willing to adapt to changing conditions underlie the optimism

What are your thoughts? Is the list missing any factors or trends you think will be important for agriculture in the future? Are you optimistic about the future of agriculture? Email any thoughts to rollingeconjay@gmail.com. All input will be kept confidential. Future Tidbits, though, may highlight general thoughts and ideas without identifying specific commentary.