Lower Corn and Soybean Production Estimates in WASDE Release
On November 14, the USDA issued the much-anticipated November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). This report provided necessary updates to yield and production estimates. With harvest coming to a close here in Nebraska, marketing grain and the current outlook for storing grain vs. selling are at the forefront of many producer’s minds.
In the November update, a reduction was witnessed across both corn and soybeans in projection and yield. The figure below shows the latest report against the September release.
As shown above, soybeans saw a 0.5 bushels per acrereduction in yield, which will result in a 48-million-bushel reduction in totalproduction forecast. The report also forecasts a 50-million-bushel reduction insoybean exports stating, “lower supplies and higher exports by Brazil andArgentia.” Prices rose after the trade deal with China to buy more soybeans,specifically around 12 tons for this current year. The price of our stockcompared globally is expected to reduce exports as well. The season-averageprice of soybeans is raised to $10.50 per bushel with soybean meal increasingto $300 per short ton too.
Corn faced similar reductions as soybeans. Corn productionis forecasted to go down 62 million bushels from September’s report. This isdue to a 0.7 bushel per acre decrease in corn yield projection. Total use isprojected to be 100 million bushels more after high exports were forecasted.Exports are forecasted to fall around 3.1 billion bushels. Ending stocks arealso forecasted up to around 2.2 billion bushels. In good news, theseason-average corn price received by producers is up to $4.00 per bushel, a 10-centincrease.
Wheat is forecasted to have a lower season-average price ataround $5 per bushel. Production is estimated to be around 1.985 billionbushels, an increase from September’s report. Global consumption is also set toincrease with the report stating more feed/residual use in Russia, Kazakhstan,and the EU.
In figure 2, Nebraska’s crop production estimates from theUSDA National Agricultural Statistics Service are shown. These numbers are fromthe Crop Production Report.
