Producers Thinking

Producers spend winter months wrapping up the previous growing season and planning for the upcoming season. The time is spent assessing their operations, strategizing, meeting with production and financial cooperators, and decision-making. What’s on producers’ minds this winter as they contemplate 2026 and beyond?

The latest farmer sentiment reading from the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index showed producer sentiment is weakening. The index, based on producer surveys, fell 23 points in January to 113, off considerably from a barometer exceeding 150 in mid-2025. For context, the highest-ever barometer recorded was just above 175 in late 2020 into early 2021. At the other end of the spectrum, the index dropped below 100 in 2016 and again in late 2024. Agricultural economists at Purdue said producers “reported worsening financial conditions compared to a year ago, with half indicating operations were worse off.” Thirty percent of producers surveyed expected weaker financial performance in the next 12 months. Only 20% expected improvement. Rising debt and slow U.S. agricultural exports were mentioned as concerns.

Figure 1. Ag Economy Barometer

The dim financial outlook has many producers thinking about changes they can make to weather the conditions and improve their operations. The University of Nebraska Center for Agricultural Profitability (CAP) conducted a survey of producers attending Husker Harvest Days last fall about topics on their minds. CAP distinguished between responses of established producers and beginning producers and noted a difference between the two groups (Figure 2). CAP reported, “Established producers identified commodity marketing, transition and estate planning, and cost of production . . .” as topics of interest and concern. Beginning producers, while also interested in those topics, placed greater emphasis on financial management with roughly half the respondents indicating it was of interest along with cost of production.

Figure 2. CAP Survey of Producers at Husker Harvest Days

Yet producers remain resilient. The resiliency was captured best on X (formerly Twitter) by a Kansas farmer who attended an event hosted by Central Valley Ag for producers under the age of 45. The post said in part, “the farm economy presentation didn’t paint a positive picture.” But “the optimism of this group shows how resilient the next generation of farmers are going to be.” The farmer added the group was sharp, knew their numbers, and are “all in” on technology. The innovation and resilience of people in agriculture have repeatedly been demonstrated in the past. The resilience, coupled with the fact that young people in agriculture are better prepared, more adept with technology, and willing to adapt to changing conditions, underlines a positive future for agriculture.